Growth & Total Return Weekly Chat

This is the forum for Growth & Total Return discussion on Seeking Alpha. A new chat begins every two weeks, and all previous blogs are listed in chronological succession on the main chat page. We won’t be doing any comment cleanup in the new chat, and users will always be able to refer back to previous discussions.

More on Today’s Markets:

We wrote about SKYX Platforms (NASDAQ:SKYX) in October and the shares are up 65% since then, so time for a revisit. First, a quick description of what they’re doing as a refresher. SKYX has developed a patented (97 global patents and trademarks) plug-and-play solution for lighting, centered around its ceiling outlet receptacle, a weight-bearing power plug enabling a host of stuff (light fixtures, ceiling fans, etc.) to be installed safely in seconds without touching hazardous wires.

Gallagher is part of the insurance sector, but contrary to other companies that I’ve covered in the past, it has a somewhat different business profile. The company provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property & casualty (P&C) claims settlement and administration services. This means its business is more focused on consulting rather than taking insurance risk, being therefore a capital-light business model as the company does not assume underwriting risk. Its major competitors are other companies operating in the brokerage insurance industry, such as AON Plc (AON) or Willis Towers Watson (WTW).

PagerDuty (NYSE:PD) is continuing to experience a long-term slide in its stock price as revenue growth continues to cool. I previously wrote about PD in March 2020 with a Hold outlook a year after its IPO. Like many operating loss-making software companies, PD has traded growth for reduced operating losses, largely becoming an IT utility that hands out excessive stock-based compensation to its employees. My outlook on PD is to sell and deploy the funds where there is more promise elsewhere.

ADT Inc. (NASDAQ:ADT) is a 150-year-old security services company with a renewed focus. ADT has recently exited an unprofitable business, increased focus on the residential market and decreasing debt. There are signs of inflicting profitability as a result of decreasing D&A, interest expenses and cost of revenue combined with single digit revenue growth. Introducing remote assistance and AI-assisted customer service can improve efficiencies further when correctly implemented.

To understand Oscar’s health we first need to understand the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the importance of subsidies on the ACA attractiveness and the importance of Extended ACA subsidies which are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress further extends them and President Trump signs it into law. With Trump controlling both the House and Senate, what is the likelihood of Extended ACA subsidies being extended? By understanding that, we can estimate what will happen to Oscar Health’s business, as the largest part of their business is ACA health insurance. Oscar Health has as of Q4 2024 1,636,400 members in Individual (ACA) and small group, while only 40,570 in the Cigna + Oscar segment.

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