Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (OTCQX:TKGBF) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 28, 2025 11:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Mahmut Akten – CEO
Aydin Guler – CFO
Ceyda Akinc – Head of Investor Relations
Conference Call Participants
Mehmet Sevim – JPMorgan
Operator
Hello, and thank you for joining us in Garanti BBVA’s First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Webcast. Our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Akten; our CFO, Mr. Aydin Guler; and our Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Ceyda Akinc, will be presenting today. [Operator Instructions]
I now leave the floor to management for the presentation.
Ceyda Akinc
Hello, everyone. I’m pleased to present Garanti BBVA’s first quarter earnings results. Before moving on to financials, I would like to go through the macro environment and our macro forecast. Turkish economy in first Q remained solid, supported by robust domestic demand. Given the strong momentum in the first quarter and the expansionary fiscal stance, we expect GDP growth to be 3.5% this year. Inflation is set to decline, supported by tighter financial conditions, moderating private consumption and lower commodity prices.
Following the latest internal and external market volatility, we revised up our year-end inflation estimate from 29% to 31%, while acknowledging upside risks from uncertainty in food prices. As you’re all familiar with, following the turmoil, CBRT took all necessary market-friendly actions to address economic imbalances, gave a strong message to rebuild confidence and anchor foreign currency expectations. Once the effects of recent internal and external shocks begin to abate, CBRT can again start easing June onwards. Yet given the potentially higher risk premium levels going forward, we think that CBRT might keep a slightly higher ex-post real rate of at least 4 percentage points by year-end.
Moving on the current account deficit. We expect current account deficit to GDP to slightly worsen to 1.5% in 2025
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