Survey Monday
It’s that time again. Wall Street Breakfast’s monthly sentiment survey is out for April, exploring recession odds, trade relationships, robotics and the new SA Market Indicator.
Take the survey here and don’t forget to share your thoughts in the WSB comments section.
Going to the polls
Federal election day is underway in Canada amid a worsening economic outlook for the country. Up until several months ago, the cost of living had been noted as the most important issue for voters, given slowing productivity growth and stagnant wage levels over the past decade. While affordability is still a priority, the election of Donald Trump has shaken up the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, as well as the polls for both of Canada’s major parties.
Snapshot: Conservative party head Pierre Poilievre had a big lead going into the end of 2024, given the chaos surrounding the exit of longtime leader Justin Trudeau and his minority government. Since then, the heir to Trudeau’s Liberal party, Mark Carney, has closed the gap in the polls due to his hardline stance against U.S. threats and economic nationalism. Other support that has been typically allocated to the NDP and Bloc Québécois might also be redirected towards the two major parties, given the high stakes surrounding the election and its two biggest contenders.
Unlike in the U.S., Canadians don’t vote directly for their top leader. They vote for a local member of parliament, and the leader of the party with the most MPs becomes the prime minister. The platforms of Carney, a two-time central banker that has never held elected office, and Poilievre, the leader of the opposition, have emerged in recent weeks and take different carrot-and-stick approaches in how to reinvigorate the economy.
“The Bank of Canada has now already cut rates at seven consecutive meetings, but the resting point for interest rates is still uncertain,” Seeking Alpha Analyst Russell Investments writes in Election Debrief: Why The Era Of Uncertainty May Continue In Canada. “Should the trade standoff persist, the Canadian economy could face a significant likelihood of tipping into a recession.”
On the ballot: Both candidates have pledged to eliminate taxes for first-time homebuyers, and are targeting supply by – establishing new public development initiatives and benefits for multi-family construction (Carney) or by expediting financing and tying federal funding of municipalities to home construction growth (Poilievre). How will they handle the U.S. trade relationship? Carney has leveled retaliatory tariffs, and pledged additional levies, in response to the ones imposed by President Trump. He has also promised to diversify Canadian trade abroad and remove interprovincial trade barriers domestically. Poilievre wants to take a more targeted approach with the U.S., while increasing deregulatory efforts to boost infrastructure, as well as energy projects by relaxing environmental and climate policies. Take the SA Sentiment Survey for April.
Read the full article here