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Latest unemployment rate up to 4.6%, highest since 2021. (0:15) Analysts cool on ice cream pure play. (2:04) Howard Stern inks new Sirius deal. (2:49)
The following is an abridged transcript:
A host of delayed economic data hit this morning as the government catches up from its shutdown. But while the numbers filled in some gaps, the overall macro picture didn’t get much clearer.
The October-November jobs numbers were the big event.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64K in November, topping the 40K consensus and rebounding from a 105K decline in October, which is also an initial estimate.
November payrolls showed a rebound from October’s expected slump, which reflected the loss of 162K federal government jobs linked to its deferred resignation program, and a deceleration from September’s number. Federal government employment has dropped by 271K since reaching a peak in January.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the 4.5% consensus and accelerating from 4.4% in September. That’s the highest level since September 2021 and the fourth-straight month the jobless rate has risen. It hasn’t done that since in 16 years.
Economist Justin Wolfers says the public sector is not the whole story, noting private-sector hiring remains week at an average of 45K a month and “may have stalled totally.”
While, economist Ernie Tedeschi says overall employment and participation rates continue to look good but the flows (JOLTS, the change in the unemployment rate) look much weaker, and certain subpopulations (e.g. 16-24 year olds) no longer look as strong.”
Retail sales for October also hit, basically flat with September. Core retail sales gained 0.4%, and were up 0.5% ex gas and autos.
Among active stocks, Pfizer (PFE) is lower after it revised its revenue outlook for the year to a level slightly below Street forecasts.
Pfizer continues to expect its 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.00-3.15, but sees revenue at roughly $62B, compared to $61.0B-$64.0B in the prior outlook and $62.5B consensus.
Analysts were cool as they started to weigh in on ice cream pure play Magnum (MICC) after its separation from Unilever (UL). BofA and Deutsche Bank both started coverage on the stock with Hold equivalents.
And Roku (ROKU) and Outfront Media (OUT) are up after Morgan Stanley upgraded both two notches to Overweight from Underweight. Analyst Thomas Yeh said they expect a strong spending year for the U.S. ad market.
In other news of note, Morgan Stanley expects Tesla (TSLA) to meaningfully increase its robotaxi fleet size next year – and have 1M on the road by 2035.
While Tesla (TSLA) has largely taken a cautious approach to scaling robotaxi operations in Austin and San Francisco, analysts cited progress in removing its safety monitor. They see 1,000 vehicles on the road in 2026, up from between 50 and 150 today.
And Sirius XM (SIRI) has renewed Howard Stern’s contract for another three years, putting an end to media speculation that his show was set to be canceled.
Stern told listeners: “I’m happy to announce that I figured out a way to have it all, more free time, and continuing to be on the radio. So, yes, we are coming back for three years.”
The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Stern’s current five-year contract was set to expire in a couple of weeks.
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