The main event of the week is the FOMC decision, but before we get there, the May inflation report should show that inflation is cooling. Pricing pressures should ease as gasoline prices tumble and as demand destruction starts to become apparent in the data. The negative base effects start to help send the headline year-over-year inflation reading closer to 4.0%.
The Fed is expected to deliver a hawkish skip, but if inflation ends up being too hot, the Fed could opt to deliver a rate hike. This rate decision could be a close call and we should finally start to see some dissents. The US economy has been resilient for most of the year but signs are emerging that it is starting to weaken. If policymakers decide to hold off on another rate hike, there is a chance that this ‘skip’ could end up being a pause. While Wall Street seems confident that the end of tightening is near, sticky inflation in the fall could disrupt how this market has aggressively priced in rate cuts by the end of the year.
The ECB is expected to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points on Thursday is what is expected to be one of the final increases in the cycle. Markets are pricing one more in July but not fully, with the drop in inflation (including core) last month easing the pressure on the central bank to continue. I expect it will stress that there’s more to do and rate cuts are not even under consideration this year but they could indicate that a pause is now on the table.
The biggest pre-BoE data release is the CPI the day before the 22 June meeting but next week offers of a host of other indicators that will attract plenty of attention. The most notable is the jobs data on Tuesday, with traders looking for any indication of slack appearing in the labor market and wage growth subsiding. Without it, the MPC will persevere with tightening. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee shortly after the release which could offer some fresh perspective on the data. GDP is also released on Wednesday.
Revised GDP data is the only noteworthy release next week. The CBR left interest rates unchanged on Friday at 7.5% but warned rate hikes remain on the table due to increased inflationary risks.
Another quiet week with retail sales on Wednesday the only notable release. The country avoided recession in the first quarter, buoyed by resilient mining and manufacturing sectors. Rolling blackouts remain a massive constraint on the economy and company profits, which will remain a huge headwind going forward.
Now that President Erdogan has secured another term, it would seem he’s decided that more conventional fiscal and monetary policy measures may be in order. He’s ignored markets for as long as he could, burning through reserves in the process and now the job of clearing up the mess has been handed to new CBRT Governor, Hafize Gaye Erkan. The lira has sunk more than 10% to fresh lows in recent days, so Erdogan’s new team has quite the job on their hands clearing up his mess. Jobs data is the highlight of the economic calendar next week.
Very little on the calendar next week, with PPI the only notable highlight.
A key week ahead with a string of important economic data releases as well as a decision on the PBoC interest rate.
First up on Monday, we will have the release of several credit conditions data for May; new yuan loans, outstanding loan growth, and M2 money supply. Consensus estimates expect a contraction in credit growth where outstanding loan growth is expected to dip to 11.6% year-on-year from 11.8% recorded in April, in line with a reduction in M2 money supply to 12.1% year-on-year from 12.4% in April.
On Thursday, another set of key economic data to digest; retail sales, industrial production, and house price index for May. Industrial production is expected to slow down to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.6% in April, retail sales are also expected to grow at a slow pace of 13.9% year-on-year from 18.4% in April (its strongest pace since March 2021), and average new housing prices in China’s 70 major cities are being forecasted to increase slightly to 0.5% year-on-year from -0.2% in April.
Also on Thursday, the PBoC will announce its decision on its 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF), the interest rate on loans that it lends to major financial institutions. It has been unchanged at 2.75% since its last cut on August 2022. Expectations have increased for a rate cut this time around due to a string of weak economic data and the recent deposit rate cut from China’s major state-owned banks by 15 basis points and 5 basis points on three-year and five-year term deposits, as per advice by PBoC.
A busy week ahead. On Monday, industrial production for April is expected to improve to 1.8% year-on-year from 1.1% printed in March, its lowest growth in industry activity since October 2022. Annual inflation growth for May is expected to slow for a second consecutive month to 4.42% year-on-year from 4.7% in April, its lowest since November 2021.
On Wednesday, we will have another set of inflation data; the wholesale prices, food Index and fuel for May. Consensus estimates for wholesale prices are pegged at -2.35% year-on-year, a deeper contraction from -0.92% in April. If it comes out as expected, it will be a second consecutive month of deflation for wholesale prices.
On Thursday, balance trade data for May is forecasted to show a wider deficit of US$17.4 billion from US$15.24 billion reported in April.
Lastly, June data on foreign exchange reserves and bank loan growth will be released on Friday.
Two key data to take note of. Firstly, Westpac’s consumer confidence Index on Tuesday where an improvement is forecasted to come in at 3.2% from a significant decline of -7.9% recorded in May.
On Thursday, the focus will be on the jobs market; employment change for May is expected to show an improvement with a gain of 20,000 jobs added after a surprise decline of 4,300 in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%.
On Wednesday, Q1 current account data and food inflation for May will be released. Food prices are being forecasted to increase slightly to 12.9% year-on-year from 12.5% in April. If it turns out as expected, it will be the fourth consecutive month of growth acceleration in food prices.
On Thursday, first quarter growth is expected to be 2.6% year-on-year, an improvement from the fourth quarter print of 2.2%.
The balance of trade data for May will be released on Thursday where a wider deficit of JPY1331.9 billion is expected from -JPY432.4 billion recorded in April. A contraction of 0.8% year-on-year in export growth is expected; that’s a significant swing from a growth of 2.6% recorded in April, its softest pace since a fall in February 2021.
On Friday, BoJ will announce the outcome of its monetary policy meeting. Given the recent mixed guidance from Governor Ueda on the future path of inflationary growth in Japan, the consensus is no change in its ultra-loose policy.
One key data release to focus on is the balance of trade for May which will be released on Friday. A reduction in its surplus to S$4.2 billion is being forecasted versus a surplus of S$4.71 billion recorded in April.
Monday, June 12
- India CPI, industrial production
- Japan PPI
- Turkey current account
- Denmark inflation
- Gas transits to resume for Hungary as maintenance expected to be completed for TurkStream pipeline
- BOE’s Mann speaks in a webinar hosted by Signum
- Asia New Vision Forum expected to host more than 300 business leaders, policymakers, industry practitioners, and opinion leaders
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg visits Washington to meet President Biden
Tuesday, June 13
- US May CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.9% prior; CPI ex-food and energy M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.5% prior
- Fed begins two-day policy meeting
- Australia consumer confidence
- Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
- Mexico international reserves
- Spain CPI
- UK jobless claims, unemployment
- BOE Gov Bailey testifies to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
Wednesday, June 14
- US FOMC rate decision: Expected to keep rates steady, along with updated economic forecasts and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference
- US PPI
- Eurozone industrial production
- India wholesale prices
- New Zealand food prices
- South Africa retail sales
- Sweden CPI
- UK monthly GDP, industrial production, trade
- Monthly IEA oil market report
- Swedish landlord SBBl holds an extraordinary general meeting to approve emergency cash-savings measures
Thursday, June 15
- PBoC meeting to decide on one-year policy loan rate; 1-year Medium-term lending facilities volume could rise from 125B to 225B
- US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, industrial production
- Australia unemployment
- Canada housing starts, existing home sales
- China property prices, retail sales, industrial production
- Eurozone ECB rate decision: Expected to raise Main Refinancing Rate by 25bps to 4.00%, President Lagarde holds a press conference
- France CPI
- India trade
- Japan machinery orders, tertiary index, trade
- New Zealand GDP
- Poland CPI
- Russia GDP
- Spain trade
- NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels
- Fed’s Bullard to speak at Norges Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF Economic Review hold a joint conference on “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy” in Oslo
- BoE’s Cunliffe speaks at Politico Global Tech Summit — London Tech Week — on ‘Central banks and the future of payments’
Friday, June 16
- BOJ rate decision: No changes expected with monetary policy
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment
- Eurozone CPI
- Italy CPI, trade
- New Zealand PMI
- Singapore trade
- UK Bank of England inflation expectations survey
- ECB’s Holzmann speaks at the Austrian National Bank’s presentation of updated economic forecasts
- ECB’s Villeroy speaks at a tech conference in Paris
- UK BoE inflation attitudes survey
Sovereign Rating Updates
- Luxembourg (Fitch)
- Norway (Fitch)
- Turkey (Moody’s)
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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